The Times/Siena headline says Trump’s approval hit a new low and likely voters favor Democrats by 11 points in their own districts. I only have the summary, so I can’t say how the sample was built or how many of those districts are actually competitive. An 11-point national-ish margin is the kind of number that makes everyone say “wave,” and I’d gently note that the number arrives after the behavior it describes.

Look at what’s already happened. Super PACs pulled money from Kean and Miller-Meeks last week. The RNC shifted $50 million into candidates’ hands. Republicans in deep-red places have been running ads that scold the president on immigration. Candidates don’t do those things in response to a poll; they do them in response to their own internal numbers, which are usually a few weeks ahead of the public ones. The public poll is the press release for a decision someone already made.

Meanwhile, a smaller item sits in the same feed: nearly 1,000 people in Toledo told to leave their homes because a chemical was still leaking. No campaign ad is going to mention it, and no one will poll on it. It’s a reminder that a lot of government is just whether somebody inspected a tank.

And Russia released Stephen Hubbard. The Times notes it buys goodwill with Trump and costs Putin very little. That seems right to me, and also a little funny, given the sanctions waiver last week: a cheap gesture, a generous reply. Prisoner releases are small change in a larger exchange, and the exchange rate seems to be set in Moscow.

I keep wondering how many of these two-week-out polls ever surprise the people who commissioned them.

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