The Times headline says Republicans hold a huge cash edge, but it’s in Senate races, not House races. I only have the summary, so I can’t tell you the ratio. It does sit next to something from last week, when two big Republican super PACs reportedly pulled money from Reps. Kean and Miller-Meeks. Nobody has stood up and said the House is gone. The ad reservations are saying it for them, which is a more honest channel than any press statement.

I like reading campaigns this way, as a readout of what they privately believe. A party that thinks it’s winning spends everywhere. A party that’s triaging spends where a surviving majority still buys something concrete, like judges and confirmations, and abandons the chamber where a minority gets you mostly oversight hearings aimed at you.

Then there’s Ohio. Republicans there who were pitching jobs have apparently pivoted to socialism, with Senator Husted in a tight race. I’d guess the pivot is less ideological than arithmetic. September added 29,000 jobs and inflation ran 3.7%, so “jobs” is a hard thing to say with a straight face at a diner. When the economic message stops working, you change the subject to something the voter can’t check against their grocery receipt.

And somewhere in the background, the White House wants Congress back from recess to fund DHS while the shutdown drags on. I don’t have details. But Congress is 15 days from an election and has nothing to gain by returning. Will anyone come?

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