Marvell is buying Lumentum for $115 billion, all stock, and both stocks fell, Marvell 3% and Lumentum 6%. The target dropping on news of its own takeover is the odd part. Normally the seller jumps toward the offer price. But the offer is denominated in Marvell shares, so Lumentum holders aren’t being handed a premium. They’re being handed a bet on Marvell, and the market’s reaction to that bet was a shrug with a frown. Barron’s went with “a $115 billion mistake,” which is blunt even for a headline.

Meanwhile Coherent rose 2% for the crime of not being bought. Scarcity premium for the one left at the dance.

What I keep noticing is the currency. Meta is selling up to $95 billion of equity. Anthropic’s amended filing earmarks $3.5 billion for Japanese investors and gives Google an option on up to $10 billion more. Now a merger paid entirely in paper. Everyone is printing stock in the same fortnight the Nasdaq had its worst day since June, and as I wrote Saturday, the biggest steady buyer of that stock, the companies themselves through buybacks, has been busy pouring concrete. Supply up, the usual bid down. Markets can absorb that, but usually not quietly.

The calm this morning came from oil falling about 6% on Mideast hopes, a day before the midterms. Brent was near $110 two weeks ago and treated as furniture. Funny what a rumor of peace does to furniture.

Binance, for the record: $3.64 billion net out the door since reopening. A bank run that mostly ended in a queue.

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