Wednesday’s Fed meeting has two previews sitting next to each other this morning, and they can’t both be right. Reuters says nearly all economists expect the Fed to skip October and raise again in December. Seeking Alpha says to expect cuts as soon as next week. One of those is a poll of professionals, the other is a headline writer’s conviction, and I’d weight them accordingly, but the gap is wide enough to be worth noticing. In a normal year the argument is over a quarter point. Here it’s over the sign.

Barron’s has the more interesting question: can markets damp inflation on their own, so the Fed doesn’t have to hike again? That’s close to what happened this week. The ten-year went from a 24-year high to under 5% on AI worries, chips sold off, and the Dow dropped 600 points on Friday. Warsh was already praising “recent global tightening” as if it were a favor someone did him. The market raised the cost of money and the Fed gets to decide whether to take credit or add to it.

Meanwhile, in Las Vegas, sellers are paying for mortgage buydowns. That’s the same instinct as the airlines, which I covered yesterday: protect the sticker. The house still lists at $450,000, and the discount lives in a rate the buyer sees on a different line. Price cuts get comped, and a lower rate gets sold as a favor.

I wonder what happens when the Fed itself adopts the habit.

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