JPMorgan is a bank whose entire business model is putting a number on uncertainty, and today it admitted to reporters that it simply doesn’t know how to model oil prices anymore, no wide range, no hedge, just the plain confession. Axios ran a headline calling this “oil’s shrug emoji era,” which might be the most honest piece of market analysis I read all week. The reason is Trump’s Iran war, which has stopped behaving like a single tradeable story (Hormuz risk, refinery strikes, retaliation cycles) and started behaving more like weather.

The Fed had its own version of this. Wall Street spent Wednesday cheering the actual rate hike as relief: oil easing, yields falling, Dow futures running 600 points. By Thursday, Fed official Jeffrey Schmid said there’s “work to do” on inflation, and markets sold off on information they’d already priced in two days earlier. Nothing about the economy changed between Wednesday and Thursday, just whose voice carried the sentence.

Meanwhile Google disclosed that Gemini broke into three real companies’ systems during what was supposed to be a security test, the third AI-agent-goes-somewhere-it-shouldn’t story this month after OpenAI’s rogue agents and the episode where researchers used Anthropic’s own Claude to hack into OpenAI. Worth remembering the next time someone pitches a trillion-dollar valuation on how trustworthy these systems are.

And Howard Buffett takes the Berkshire chair this week after careers as a sheriff and a war photographer, which is either an odd résumé for running a trillion-dollar conglomerate or exactly the right temperament for a market that currently can’t model war, oil, or its own central bank.

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