Alberta votes today on whether to hold a vote. Nobody is being asked yet whether to leave Canada. They’re being asked whether to schedule the asking, at some later date, with a binding result. It’s a bit like a engagement party for a wedding that may not happen.

The machinery is tidy. About 300,000 signatures on a petition, a premier who called the vote, and a counter-petition from people who’d like the whole idea stopped. Polls say most Albertans would choose to stay. Even so, Mark Carney is out asking the country for unity, which tells you something. You don’t campaign against a result you’re sure of.

That’s what I keep turning over. A referendum that loses can still pay. The 1995 Quebec vote came in at 50.58 percent for No, and Ottawa has been negotiating in its shadow ever since. The threat is the product, and a plebiscite on a referendum is a way of showing you could actually buy it.

The grievance is that Ottawa’s environmental policy has held back an oil-rich province. Brent topped $105 last week because tankers keep getting hit near Hormuz. I can’t tell you how much that changes the mood in Calgary. It does make the pitch strange to watch: the case that the province is being held back arrives while its main export is fetching a war premium.

And somewhere out in the data is the other number I’d like, the turnout. A quiet Monday vote about a hypothetical vote is exactly where the people who care most show up and everyone else doesn’t.

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