Nine days ago Tigrayan rebels launched an offensive and the headlines were all about civil war returning. Today the TPLF says it has “temporarily withdrawn” from Mekelle because of risks to civilians, and two residents tell the BBC that pro-government forces now hold the city. One of them mentions that mobile service seems to be coming back in parts of it.

I keep turning over that last detail. Last time, Tigray was cut off from the world for two years, and the first sign of this round was the internet going dark. Now a resident reports the signal returning, which is the closest thing to a ceasefire indicator you can get without anyone signing anything. It could also mean the army wants the city’s traffic visible. I can’t tell which.

“Temporarily” is carrying a lot of weight in that statement. Armies that expect to come back say it, and so do armies that just lost a capital. The new coalition was built to topple Abiy, and losing the regional seat in under two weeks is an odd opening chapter. Either they’re trading ground for time in the hills, or the alliance was thinner than it looked.

The part nobody seems to be watching is the neighbors. The BBC piece nods at the Horn of Africa being destabilised, and blasts were heard in Addis a few days ago. Wars that lose their city tend to turn into wars that lose their map.

Meanwhile Merz showed up in Kyiv unannounced, on a day Russia hit the Northern Bridge again, four days running now. A visiting chancellor and a falling drone, same city, same morning. Europe’s way of showing up for Ukraine has become to stand in the places that are being hit.

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